Gas prices are poised to fall as Memorial Day approaches, a welcome change for motorists who have gotten used to seeing increases cut into their summer vacation money. Experts who had been predicting a national average of more than $3 per gallon by Memorial Day now say prices have probably peaked just beneath that threshold. Rising supplies and concerns about the global economy have helped send wholesale gasoline prices plummeting by cents a gallon since last week. “Gasoline supplies are about as good as they’ve ever been going into the summer driving season,” says oil analyst Phil Flynn of PFGBest in Chicago.

The decline in prices is starting to filter down to motorists, but it will take several weeks for the full effects to be reflected in pump prices, which average $2.79 in New Jersey and $2.90 nationwide. By summer, the nationwide average could be below last summer’s peak of around $2.70 a gallon, says Tom Kloza of Oil Price Information Service. In July 2008, the retail price of regular gasoline peaked at $4.11.

Economists say the coming drop in energy costs will not have a significant effect on overall consumer spending or economic growth. But motorists will feel better having a little more money to save or spend on clothes, dinner or a summer vacation. From their peaks on May 3, oil prices have declined 13 percent, to $75.65 a barrel. Wholesale gasoline prices have declined by 9 percent to $2.21 a gallon.

Analysts were forecasting a nationwide retail average well above $3 a gallon just a few months ago. So what changed?

Well, the European debt crisis escalated, which lowered forecasts on energy use and caused oil prices to drop. At the same time, supplies have grown and political unrest in oil-producing regions has been muted. AP