Several new polls have been released in recent days, all showing Governor Phil Murphy leading Jack Ciattarelli by anywhere from 6% to 11%. The polls beg the question: does Jack Ciattarelli even stand a chance?
The short answer is ‘yes’, but let’s dig into it a bit, specifically the Monmouth University poll which gave Murphy the widest advantage (11%) and is considered quite reputable.
Firstly, the polls in general – not just the Monmouth poll – have been going in the right direction for Jack Ciattarelli. Just a short time ago, polling had Murphy leading by 26 percentage points. In a matter of a month or two, Ciattarelli has cut down that lead significantly – and that shift in popularity and support is continuing.
Secondly, even the Monmouth poll comes with two possible scenarios based on turnout, and while everyone is talking about Murphy being up 11 points in the poll, the second scenario has him up just 7 points – well within striking distance for Ciattarelli.
Thirdly, the Monmouth poll only surveys registered voters, whereas most other polls survey likely voters. With likely voters, it is widely agreed upon that Ciattarelli has a decided advantage over Murphy. Thus, a poll of registered voters rather than likely voters will skew towards Murphy, but it won’t necessarily be accurate.
Speaking of accuracy, let’s go back to some old polls. Congressman Jeff Van Drew was found by a Monmouth poll to be trailing his opponent by 6 percentage points. He wound up winning by 5 points, meaning the Monmouth poll was off by a full 11 percentage points – the same amount they say Murphy is leading by now!
The Monmouth poll also found that Chris Christie was losing to then-Governor Jon Corzine by 2%. Christie won the governor’s race by 3%, making Monmouth off by 5 points.
To put it plainly, polls are very wrong all the time. Take them with a truckload of salt.
Furthermore, there are several unique circumstances in the upcoming gubernatorial election. In many areas of New Jersey (Hudson County comes to mind), previously die-hard Phil Murphy fans have soured on his leadership and will either not be voting in the election or will be voting for Jack Ciattarelli.
Polling also does not take into consideration how many new voters there are now in Ocean County – a Republican stronghold – and how those new voters can tip the election to a specific candidate, in this case Jack Ciattarelli.
There’s also some circumstantial evidence to suggest that Governor Murphy’s own internal polls show the race to be far tighter than public polls are suggesting. The governor has been bringing in as many high-profile Democrats as he can – from former President Barack Obama to socialist Senator Bernie Sanders – to shore up his support in New Jersey. Why would all these Democratic leaders need to shlep out to New Jersey if Murphy has the election locked down? And, furthermore, Murphy’s rally with Obama drew less than a thousand people. Why would that be if New Jerseyans are so excited to reelect Murphy as governor? And that brings us to my last point.
Time and time again we have seen that the result of an election comes down to a campaign’s enthusiasm. Remember President Hillary Clinton? Of course not, because despite the clear advantage given to her in the polls, Donald Trump had a lot more enthusiasm on his side, and when push came to shove, that’s all that mattered.
Don’t let the polling fool you or discourage you. Polling is consistently right about as often as flipping a coin to determine who will win.
As famed radio broadcaster Rush Limbaugh said: polls don’t reflect public opinion. They are made to influence public opinion.
Don’t let polls fool you or discourage you. Just get out and vote. Because at the end of the day, that’s all that matters.
(TLS welcomes your letters by submitting them to [email protected])
If there is still time, can the 2 candidates be asked regarding the upcoming plastic bag ban, if they are willing to commit to sign an executive order to allow individual municipalities to opt out of the ban.
It will be a killer to all the families in Lakewood.
Perhaps the scoop can write up an op ed so that it attracts attention to the candidates.
Nah
Another point, those pushing for Murphy never give any explanation, as to why it’s not a chilul hashem with all the upstanding non Jews watching from Jews are not embarrassed to vote for abortion and other abominable agendas…..
As for hakaras hatov can anyone point out any exceptional consideration the Murphy admin has given us?
The major Hakaras Hatov for him is:
He shut our schools for 6 months, but could have done it for a year.
His policies KILLED many in our community by taking essential medicines off the shelves for political purposes. And sending covid patients to nursing homes.
His policies caused many to die alone without family by their side.
He took away our bussing so that when he gave it back we should be thankful.
He forced many of our businesses to close down with his draconian fiats.
His legislative agenda has been abhorrent and his plans for a second term are worse.
But I guess he could’ve been worse!
I’ll ask again, What hakaras hatov??
This article is spot on accurate. Go Jack Go!
I don’t think there was much enthusiasm in Biden campaign and he is the president I know that I will get a bunch of responses about the stolen election….
While there wasn’t much enthusiasm for Biden as a candidate, there certainly was extraordinary enthusiasm to oust Trump. That’s why nobody would show up at his rallies, but those same people showed up at the polls.
they say over from Rav Gifter Ztl Haloras hatov is a very important mandate of Jews but it only applies as long as the Hakoros doesn’t conflict with the tov, if we have to give up on the tov such as LGBT Education in our schools and Vaccine mandates and the like then Hakoras doesnt apply.
The Vaad has endorsed Murphy and therefore he will win. We must show our Hakaras Hatov that we are the only Jewish community in the world that has not had lockdowns and our schools have been opened without interuption since Shavuos 5780
Sorry, not sure whom you’re referring to as not having lockdowns. Please explain!
Schools have been opened since ___ ?? huh? and till then?
Please explain!
Have some forgotten????
No mention of Shuls?
I’m fed up with the Vaad and I am voting for Jack Ciatterelli. Anyway I never vote Democrat
Hakras Hatov ok agree. But Jack cidurrelly promised to pardon Eismann. So end of story פיקוח נפש פדיון שביום is דוחה all הכרת הטוב. Murphy didn’t let him promise. Then we can compare apples to apples.
The hakaras hatov will backfire when you have vaccine mandates and all the yeshivas will have to comply
No, they will actually have to close. There are many rabbeim & teachers who will quit. (You arent paying them enough anyway…) Look whats going on in NY – Garbage in the streets due to quitting employees. Many Fire stations closed. Police are down too many cops. Flights all over are being cancelled.
If this happens in our state, our schools WILL CLOSE. It’s not a question. There just aren’t enough vaccinated people in our town that are dying to teach!
And again, we search for Da’as Torah from Rush Limbaugh.
Murphy didn’t shut us down, we need to show Hakaras Hatov……I’m hearing this as the only reason to vote for him,
A few things to consider.
1) last Elul, when lakewood positive rate was high, so was Jersey city and many other towns, Murphy didn’t shut anyone down, he wasn’t trying to help jews, he was scared to shut the state down again, he knew he was up for re-election
2) how does Hakaras Hatov override the To’evai he wants to implement in our private schools, for those that say, nah your talking nonsense he can’t do that, it’s illegal, he did it in the public school system, and the left believe that parents don’t have a say in their children education.
3) If Jews don’t vote on principle, then the politicians will never know what we stand vote, now they think we only care about a few bucks
Anyone that cares about Yiddishkiet, and sees how the world is falling apart with the left, knows that Jack is the only choice in this election.
@Moshe Hakaras Hatov 1) doesn’t take into account the intentions of the one who did the Tov. Just like Moshe Rabeinu had Hakaras Hatov to the water and earth despite their lack of intention. 2) Clearly you don’t understand how important Hakaras Hatov is and 3)the politicians will see that Jews vote by principle of following Daas Torah
Sorry, not sure whom you’re referring to as not having lockdowns. Please explain!
Schools have been opened since ___ ?? huh? and till then?
Please explain!
Have some forgotten????
No mention of Shuls?
VOTE. Although all the voting machines in Ocean County are Dominion (AVC-Sequoia) they are from the 1980’s so it is impossible for votes to be changed at the machine level, on-site or remotely. YOUR VOTE WILL COUNT.
This state is dumb and always votes Democrat. What the heck is wrong with you people? What positive things are happening? Propety taxes are absurd, inflation, cost of living is terrible, no one wants to work cause the government gives free money, bad gas prices. This state is a mess. Please use common sense and vote Jack. Please. This country is so broken.