Is Hashem Fixing the Shidduch Crisis for Us? | Avi Gutfreund

The shidduch crisis is, and has been for a long time, one of the most heated and divisive issues facing the frum community. Debate has raged for years now over how to tackle the crisis of the rising number of single girls in our community, with some arguing that boys have to get married younger and others contending either that the crisis can be solved in other ways or that it doesn’t actually exist in the first place.

The issue was discussed in a panel this past Thursday at the Agudah Convention, in which Rav Elya Ber Wachtfogel called upon bochurim to go into shidduchim a year earlier, saying the shidduch crisis “could be the biggest tragedy facing Klal Yisroel today.” He said that bochurim should either go to Eretz Yisroel to learn a year earlier, or skip going to Eretz Yisroel and go straight into shidduchim from their yeshiva.

The moderator of the panel, Mr. Gershon Barnett, noted that the shidduch crisis comes down to the realities of population growth. He explained that because the frum population is growing year over year, bochurim beginning shidduchim at age 22 and girls at 19 means that there are far more girls than boys at any given point “on the market,” thus leading to the crisis we see today.

A few days ago, I came across some fascinating numbers about the birth rates in Lakewood, which I think could possibly shed some light on where the crisis is holding and where it is heading. To preface, I am not taking a side in this debate, and any decision over how to tackle the shidduch crisis should, in my opinion, be left to our manhigim.

With that said, let’s take a look at the numbers.

The graph below shows the number of children born each year to white, non-Hispanic parents in Lakewood since 1990. In that graph, you may notice an incredible phenomenon taking place. Year after year, the number of boys being born are significantly higher than the number of girls being born!

In 2020, there were 2,348 boys born and 2,154 girls born. In 2019, 2,302 boys born, and 2,148 girls born. For every single year for the past 30 years, there have been more boys being born to the Jewish community in Lakewood than girls. If you want to see the numbers for yourself, click here.

What does that mean? I can’t definitively say it means anything at all, but isn’t it interesting? What it could mean – and obviously our rabbanim and other manhigim would have to give their stamp of approval – is that the shidduch crisis is being resolved not by us, but by Hashem!

If a few hundred more boys than girls are born each year, that means that there will be around as many 22-year-old boys “on the market” as there are girls who are 19 and “on the market.”

Is it possible that the shidduch crisis will resolve itself? I am in no position to say yes or no, but I did find these numbers to be fascinatingly thought-provoking.

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41 COMMENTS

  1. it is a fact because there are more boys born than girls. for every 100 girls born, there are about 105 boys born. Said another way, it is slightly easier to have a boy than a girl.. Hence the NASI Data has always been faulty. check it out yourself.

    • In Lakewood over the last few years it has been 107.5 boys born for every 100 girls.
      In rest of New Jersey, it is about 105.5.
      Something is going on here.

  2. I just don’t get it. What happened to our beleif in chazal that teach us “40 days before there is a bas kol bas ploni L’ploni. do you intend to say C”v by some its not announced!!!!!

    • In parshas Emor a kohain is instructed to become tamai to his dead never married sister. Apparently, not everyone gets married.
      Also, tosfos in kiddusion explains a practice of his day which seems to be against the gemara, saying the practice was necessary to insure that the girl would be able to get married. Apparently, tosfos felt that a shidduch crisis requires us to do our hishtadlus, as well as relying on Hashem.

  3. Unfortunately by the time they reach marriage age, many more of these boys will be at-risk than girls leaving more “good girls” than “good boys”

  4. The only issue I have with the whole NASI idea, is that few to none of the signed Roshei Yeshivos have sons that started dating/ got engaged at the age that they are telling everyone to do

  5. There’s always more boys born than girls, that’s nothing new. So nope… the “lets not do anything and rely on Hashem to fix something we broke” ideology isn’t going to work here. We have bonei olam, aTime, RCCS and other organizations to solve other issues that we don’t just leave up to G-d… so why is this one any different. We broke it, so we have to fix it.

    Lets rather give our boys a better education so we don’t lose a large chunk of them. At least at a level comparable with girls. And then maybe they’ll also be mature enough to marry earlier and be on the same level as the girls in certain social and intellectual aspects.

  6. Izzy is correct

    There is no shidduch crisis. Hashem already sets up every person with their zivvug/shidduch wife to be 40 days before they are even born. Forget about the fact that now were talking they are already approximately 20 years later since born and setup. The question YOU need to ask yourself is if your doing your RUCHNIUS hishtadlus of tefilla and bitachon and Emunah (faith and trust) in Hashem? And not just your gashmius hishtadlus of dating and speaking to shadchanim etc….

    Daven directly to Hashem to send you or your child their Shidduch ASAP. Hashem already has them setup for many years since before birth and is just waiting for your call for help and for the right time

  7. Hashem always made more boys born then girls. This is a set fact worldwide, not just in Lakewood. Unfortunately, more boys than girls are simply not marriageable for various reasons. for example, boys have much higher rates of autism than girls, boys engage in risky behaviors much more than girls & R”L pass away. More boys go OTD than girls as well. The Rishonim like the Rambam & tosfos in kiddushin teach us to do the maximum hishtadlus when it comes to shidduchim. The Pelleh Yoetz as well writes that even though we believe in hashgacha when it comes to shidduchim, we should be nevertheless do the maximum tefilah & hishtadlus to find the right shidduch. There are hundreds of unmarried frum girls in the low 40’s who are quickly passing their childbearing age & many others have passed it R”L, It is absolutely callous to claim that we can just sit by & allow this misery to continue without doing our utmost hishtadlus based on an Agaditta of 40 days. As an aside, The Agaditta actually talks about a boy being given his Zivvug before he’s born, it doesn’t guarantee a zivug to a girl. In addition, the Steipler said that many boys reject their zivvug intended for them so we can’t go by that memrah alone.

  8. Unfortunately, #3 Chuchem is right. It’s much easier being a good girl, seeking a serious learning boy than actually BEING a good, serious learner boy.
    I used to be a shadchan. By the time I retired, I had 120 good “serious-learner” types on my list, and only 20 similar boys.
    Another issue I have with the numbers game is, if its true that it’s just a matter of more girls than boys, then EVERY SINGLE good boy would be married & that is simply not true.
    May all singles, boys & girls, find their BAshert very soon.

  9. Why is there such a stigma among girls in Lakewood against marrying BMG guys who come from very Modern homes? These Flipout boys are Top Learners are moser nefesh for Hashem and His Helige Torah against the wishes of their families and communities who despise their gadlus.
    These boys’ values are the same as the girls’, yet they are turned down simply because they don’t like their family backgrounds.
    In all of Klal Yisroel, the # of Flipout boys from MO homes looking to marry BY girls is far greater than the # of open-minded BY girls and baalos teshuva open to marrying them.

    Many of the brothers of these girls have no qualms rejecting their sisters who likewise Flip out!

    • So you have already made up the answer in your mind. You called it ‘stigma’ and that is enough.
      Fact is, family background is extremely important. It makes sense to marry someone who comes from a similar background to the one that you want to build in your home. A flip-out may not know or understand the unwritten rules. He may have learned very well, but culturally he is different. Which is similar to the reason many people are wary about overseas Shiduchim. British/Israeli/Belgian?Australian girls and boys may be wonderful people, but they are different to Americans.
      It has nothing to do with ‘stigma’, that is a nasty canard.

  10. Kudos to Mr. Barnett for his efforts, However I believe the picture is far more complicated. And the statistics he has compiled show only part of the picture. While his statistics show that There are more girls than boys on the market it fails to address that there are hundreds of boys on the market Even 25 plus and there doesn’t seem to be any momentum To lower the backlog.if the only issue was more girls than boys theoretically there should be no boys available at say age 25 and only the surplus girls still waiting. Obviously that is not the case and there are far more girls who Can be paired up waiting then girls which cannot be paired up.
    It seems to be a problem of market momentum Which causes many girls to wait around for many years and then get engaged to someone they could have gotten engaged to years ago, which many believe has to do with the “freezer” . Just imagine how the stock market would work if you had 3 months to think about trading a certain stock at a specific price…. Or for that matter if a real estate realtor would let you think about about buying a house for 3 months, You would compile a list of houses with the pros and cons and would never be Motivated to actually go ahead. For people to commit there needs to be a motivation, essentially if you don’t jump in now you can lose it. The fact that a boy has 3-4 months to contemplate the pros and cons and and compile a list of many names without any obligation to to say yes or no causes “market malaise” A feeling that if I wait around I might get even better….

  11. In my opinion there is a shortage of Shadchanim, and shortage of negotiators, I personally know someone he is a good boy but got divorced for whatever reason, and it’s been more than ten years and it’s either the Shadchanim or the girls that won’t even look in to this shiduch, there are good boys around and people misunderstand them and miss judge them, and then there are the ones with beards and the Shadchanim don’t want to look at them. So there needs to be more people with understanding and negotiating. And people have to give in and not look and look for a big list.

  12. i know of many older very yeshivish girls like 29 years old who said no to learning guys because the boys FATHER wears a kipa sruga who by the way has money and is willing to support the couple and the son is a normal learning type guy who because of kibud av vaem goes home for Thanksgiving dinner but the parents dont watch TV in his presence yet keeps getting rejected for even a date because of his parents Young Israel background, mind you they themselves were mesiras nefesh to be frum.

  13. The “40 days before hashem assigns a zivug” is not so simple, as we find in Gemara and several places in Halacha the concern of “Shema Yikadmenu Acher” (maybe someone will precede him).

  14. If you watched Mr. Barnetts presentation, you will see he is fully aware that the are more boys born each year. His graph of numbers include the fact that more boys are born than girls – and even based on these numbers, the age gap creates such a disparity that there still is a crisis.

  15. Sorry Avi but that’s bad math. Match the numbers of boys up from any year in your chart to the number of girls born three years later (the age gap) and you will see that there is still a huge shortage of boys. Extrapolated to the larger Jewish community its hundreds of girls who don’t have a boy, and woth the current growth rate it is increasing.

    To the poster who said everyone has a bashert even with the number gap and to leave it up to Hashem, R Elya Ber was asked this this week by the convention and he emphatically rejected your approach saying we must do hishtadlus to change the age gap.

  16. Girls start dating at 19, and boys don’t start until 23. It stands to reason, then, that there should be many fewer girls than boys that are 23 since they are already in shiduchim for 4 years, and many have gotten married already. Additionally, starting the boys at a younger age would only “work” until the age-gap is leveled. A much better idea to solve the age-gap issue, if that is the reason for the shidduch crisis, is to have the girls start shidduchim at an older age. It gives her a chance to get a degree, or to work or a few years before she gets married and has all the responsibilities that marriage entails. But that won’t work, either, because the girls are so afraid of not getting married. However, you can’t have it both ways.

  17. I know older boys who will not consider a girl if she is a size 4. Will not consider a girl whose father is not a renowned Talmid Chacham. There is blame on all sides.

    The ones that find Shiduchim are open minded and consider any suggestion even if it is not what they are Lchatchila looking for.

    And the others complain on the blogs….

  18. The idea of getting boys to date younger is not really the boys or their parents decision. It is the Yeshiva system. Obviously the Rosh Yeshiva’s are not maskim to change the system. Even the girls, if they wanted they could change the system to add another year to School, or something like that, so the ages would be closer.
    So why do they keep bringing it up to us? We are not the deciders of these things, it’s the Roshei Yeshiva and School administration.
    Obviously Rav Elya Ber agreed with them, but he was a Daas yochid it seems.

  19. Before anyone thinks too deeply into into the “data” you must realize that this is wholly unscientific “yeshivashe” Statistics, It does not take into consideration for example some Mental/emotional disorders that Are twice as prevalent by women than men for example depression, eating disorders etc And if the The percent of those with these disorders are similar to the secular world that alone can make up for the whole gap. Family factors for example broken homes can affect girls more than boys since boys can move away easier to learn and avoid some of the chaos From home. Details do matter and it probably cuts both ways until somebody does a real analysis I’m not sure it is worthwhile to chew over the superficial statistics all that much.

  20. Such articles although interesting are extremely frustrating as first of all there clearly is a crisis at the moment as the author points out with over 10% of woman 29 years and up still single and not even close to that many men. This is in addition to all the anecdotal evidence. Secondly the author has already factored this into his data and still comes up with a severe discrepancy due to the large rates of population growth. And third of all even if these numers equaled out it will not resolve the issue for the next fifteen years with thousands of people suffering. So to question whether there is a crisis is absurd as anyone involved knows the answer without any question. And there is only one easy solution which is to address the MATHEMATICS as the Rosh Yeshiva said. There is no other answer that could work unfortunately.

  21. Our community is full of CRISIS:
    In the Litvische/Yeshivische world: Not enough boys as so much Bachurim ר”ל go off.
    In the Chasidishe world: Not enough girls as so much Chasidishe girls become modern and than ר״ל go off.
    Shalom Bayis Crisis.
    Parnassa Crisis.
    Housing Shortage Crisis.
    School shortage Crisis.
    School Bus Driver Shortage Crisis.
    Crisis had become a culture; We need Moshiach now.

  22. Mutty

    If we really wanted Mashiach now then we would all together as a nation wake up and FACE REALITY. all the tragedies R”L that are hitting klal yisroel ate no coincidence. THERE’S NO SUCH THING AS COINCIDENCE. everything had a direct wake up call and message from Hashem. Sometimes they are messages for klal yisroel to do serious Teshuva while other times they are messages of tznius or Kashrus etc…

    At this point with millions having passed away in the coronavirus pandemic Mageifa-thousands among them being yidden-Hashem is waiting for klal yisroel as one loving nation-on all levels from frum to frei to chassidish etc….-to come together for serious Teshuva, Kinnus and fasting like we all did in the story of Purim and Baruch Hashem klal yisroel was saved on Purim for being destroyed.

    May we all wake up ASAP from denial and FACE REALITY so all tzaros in klal yisroel can come to a complete stop and Mashiach can come already

  23. this subject is a pet peeve for me as i went out for 10 years, and BH finally got married. my two cents is that every situation is different and no one solution can possibly solve the problem. One piece of advice however does apply to all, NEVER GIVE UP! keep on going out! I know people who stopped going out and never got married nebach. DONT STOP DAVENING AND DONT STOP TRYING!

  24. Not to worry. As long as people continue to break things, Hashem will continue to fix things. You gotta believe. A blessed Hanukkah season to all.

  25. It’s interesting that this is coming up now. I wrote about this phenomenon a few years ago. I showed that the charts of Lakewood schools show about 10% more boys than girls annually. Similar statistics emerge from the AviChai Foundation. I also found a book from decades ago from a non Jewish researcher which reported that it is well known that Orthodox Jews have a very high male birth rate, with studies quoted.
    It’s important to note that according to the AviChai foundation the growth of the yeshivish community is less than 3.5% per year. What the actual age gap is I don’t know, but it’s probably not more than 2 years.

    • you are wrong on all counts. There are not 10% more boys than girls born in lakewood according to anyone. The growth rate is well more than 3.5%, and the actual gap is more than 2 yrs. Also to suggest that there is no issue is not only ridiculous but actually like living under a rock.

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