More boys than girls are being born in Lakewood. And in North Dakota. And in Kenya.
Excitement was generated this week by some information from the New Jersey Department of Health. Data from birth certificates show that over the past 30 years, more boys than girls are being born in New Jersey. It was suggested that the larger number of boys may solve the so-called shidduch crisis, compensating for the community’s year-over-year growth that results in a larger number of marriageable young women than marriageable young men three years older.
In truth, what’s happening in New Jersey in an entirely expected, natural phenomenon. The proportion of newborn babies who are male—what scientists call the “sex ratio”—is naturally about 51.3% in all human populations. That means 105 boys born for every 100 girls. The World Bank gathers data on sex ratio at birth, readily available here, and we find the 105:100 ratio all around the world, from the United States to Israel, from Bangladesh to Argentina, from Finland to Liberia. From 1990 to 2020, the average sex ratio in New Jersey was—just as expected—105:100.
The baby boys being born in New Jersey are not the solution to the shidduch crisis. They are already baked into the current reality.
Dr. Michelle Shain is the Assistant Director of the Orthodox Union’s Center for Communal Research.
A much more significant factor than the age gap (partially offset by the birth rate) is the gap between the % of girls who go through the Bais Yaakov system and come out wanting to marry a kollel guy vs the % of boys who go through the yeshiva system abd come out wanting to learn in kollel.
Ie an Education Gap
Sorry, but the actual data for white non Hispanics in Lakewood (not the state but the town Lakewood) shows that in the last 20 years about 107 males were born for each female, not 105. Considering that the growth of the yeshivishe community is less than 3.5% according to AviChai Foundation, the age-gap should not be a natural concern.
107 males for each female!!?? Something sounds wrong here.!
are you saying a ratio of 107:1 ??
more likely 107:100
which shows this whole age gap argument is a bunch of smoke and mirrors the truth is the Borei Olam knows what he is doing, every person until he or she is married is part of the shidduch crisis.
After reading the above post, I thought that perhaps this explains why when someone is addressing a group of boys and girls, the person will address the group as “boys and girls”, placing the boys before the girls, due to the fact that boys are the majority in the world.
As to why the expression “Ladies and gentlemen” places the ladies before the gentlemen, I thought that perhaps this expression is used when girls reach the stage of womanhood, and then etiquette demands that due respect be shown to the Ladies, and that they be addressed first in spite of the fact that are not the majority.
Additionally, the latter expression is a more gentlemanly expression, which behooves us to express the words in a more gentlemanly manner, by placing the ladies before the gentlemen.
Upon further musing, I decided that all of this pilpul is pilpul shel hevel and letzonos, until I found this pshat in the famous sefer, “Shtusim Vi’Havolim & More” – so who knows.
There are a couple of factors that seem to be missing from the discussion.
1. The amount of years spent in yeshiva post high school both here and E”Y is not really defined, it’s more of a follow the pack mentality (the Israelis get married younger because they don’t come here to learn for 2-3 years first) this needs to be re-evaluated assuming the age-gap is the issue.
2. If there would be more hadrachah to prepare one for marriage (think shmuzin geared to this topic from age 19) it would allow for the bochurim to at least consider marrying younger (maybe go to E”Y married or just go to BMG) once it starts the pressure is on and change is made.
the scientists have posited that the ratio of male to female births is to compensate for the higher mortality rate of males to females. Historically, it was the males who were soldiers who were sent to the fronts. Males had environmentally more dangerous occupations. Before the advent of modern medicine and proper sanitary standards, women were susceptible to die in childbirth, but not at the rates that soldiers were lost in battle.
In response to 1: moshe cohen, it may be true that there are more girls than boys looking for a kollel lifestyle, but that does not answer why ten years after high school there is still a problem. Or maybe there is no problem. In other words after ten years of high school the amount of girls that are looking for boys who will learn in Kollel is dramatically less then in the beginning. The question then becomes, are the boys and girls on par hashkafically when they are both around the age of thirty or not, that is, are there are still more girls who want boys that are more towards the right hashkafically than guys who are on that same level of hashkafa. If they are on the same level, the problem cannot be a “looking for a kollel type guy problem.” Bottom line, if boys and girls are on the same hashkafic level at thirty there is no shidduch catastrophe, (although I would still call it a crises to have so many people unmarried until the age of 30). On the other hand if the median hashkafic levels are always off, then there is a real long, long term problem at hand.
The shidduch gap theory is a very unsophisticated “yeshivish” analysis of the marriage scene… It doesn’t take into consideration various illnesses as depression anxiety, eating disorders which is more than twice as prevalent in women than men and if the percentage of people with these conditions is the same as it is in the secular of the world then it would actually be more boys available then girls.
It also doesn’t take into consideration any societal differences, as boys expecting girls parents to help out so poor girls are at more of a disadvantage, and girls coming from broken homes are at the disadvantage to boys coming from a broken home for various reasons.
In short will the well-meaning people who would like for our community to make some serious changes need to show some serious analysis that the Gap actually exists and it’s not some other issue as many shadchanim will tell you…..
If we don’t watch over these boys though and they go otd Chas Sholom the numbers get much smaller
The question is like this. Even if it is true that there are less boys who make it through the system than girls, we can still easily solve the issue by having the girls be a year older than boys. We have to find a solution! There has been a change fairly recently, that a very large percentage of boys are going to high school in Lakewood without English, if they are learning Hebrew studies for a full day for the entire high school, doesn’t it make sense that they should be able to cut out one year of high school? If the girls would also start going out a year later you are already have subtracted the gap by two years. Now if each one can add another half a year. We will have change the gap for three years. Wouldn’t that solve the issue? The maturity is also not an issue. It is a fact proven throughout history that kids mature when they have to be mature. If they know they will be getting married at 21, they will be ready at 21. This is proven in the Hasidic world in the European world and the Israeli world.
This is an interesting issue that came across my Yahoo News feed on my phone. I am a Christian outsider. There is so much about your community that I don’t know.
My initial thought was, “Why is this so important?” I genuinely believe in creating more dialogue between our communities so that all that matters to me is that it is important to you.
I do not wish to “hijack” this discussion and take it into a different direction. It has occurred to me that this discussion of gender ratio statistics is not focusing on the actual gender ratio of marriageable men and women in your Jewish community in Lakewood.
The more males to females ratio is inclusive of all people in New Jersey and not specific to Orthodox Jews in your community.
Unless I have misunderstood the statistics presented it would seem that more study focusing on statistics within your community is in order.
You mat also want to look at the number of eligible men who for personal reasons choose not to marry. This may not be the case. I cited it as there may be more factors requiring investigation than birth ratios. There may be some sociological factors to consider.
As an outsider I hope that you find some of my thoughts helpful.
It does have to do with the Shiduch crises
Because as Klal Yisroel gets bigger and Bigger more Boys and girls fall in to this Gap
If 30 years ago there were 1050 boys for 1000 girls
That effected 50 girls
However now it can be 10,500 boys for 10,000 girls
That leaves you with a disproportion of 500 without a match
The cheshbon of more boys than girls is really going where we don’t belong, gotta leave something to G-D.
besides for the impossibility of counting boys girls because our communities chassidish yeshiva balebatish modern sfardish etc. do not have well defined borders there are a lot of inter community marriages between these communities so it’s impossible to isolate one community and count.If we would have no other plausible pshat in the so -called crisis, perhaps It would be understandable.
Forgive me for saying an inconvenient truth but it must be said if we’re gonna be serious about discussing the issue. Is it common to find a 30+ girl who has NOT said no to at least five normal decent frum boys. ( oh and don’t even start with that “ who are you to tell me to settle?”) I am not talking off the top of my head I do have some experience. Until we find that girl who really did not have a chance to marry for 10 years I consider this crisis a fabrication and illusion.
If you have ever attempted to actually deal with some of these older singles who are otherwise very fine wonderful people, you’re probably nodding your head as you’re reading this.
In short as long as we can clearly see that the simple hishtadlus needed to get married isn’t happening, we shouldn’t be playing social engineering geniuses and figuring out the problem from the birth statistics of the yeshiva community.